Midterm elections are widely seen as a referendum on the incumbent president, and this is justified by the high correspondence between overall job approval and seat loss for the president's party.

The following sections of this report discuss how each of these four polling indicators, as well as party affiliation, has related to midterm election outcomes historically. Each of those metrics is at least 10 points lower than the historical average at the time of past midterm elections, and most are on pace to be the worst of such readings. Gallup's latest data, from a May 2-22 survey, finds 41% of Americans approving of the job President Joe Biden is doing, 18% approving of the job Congress is doing, 16% satisfied with the way things are going in the U.S., and a 32-percentage-point deficit in positive (14%) versus negative (46%) ratings of current economic conditions.

On their own, those numbers would all predict a greater-than-average loss of seats for the Democratic Party this fall. Rather, as of May, Gallup finds presidential job approval and three other key national mood indicators well below the historical averages measured in past midterm election years. However, 2022 is not shaping up to be an average year. House seats in midterm elections - an average of 23 since 1974. The party of the president typically loses U.S. With less than five months to go before voters elect all members of the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate, the current Democratic congressional majority is facing an extremely unfavorable election environment.

Party of unpopular presidents has lost an average of 37 House seats.All key national mood indicators well below historical averages.President's party usually loses seats in midterm elections.

Historical midterm election results